Rice Outlook Tables March, 2017

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board.
Updated March 9, 2017.

Table 1--U.S. rice supply and use *1
Item2010/112011/122012/132013/142014/152015/162016/17 *2
TOTAL RICE
Million acres Area:
Planted3.6362.6892.72.492.9542.6253.15
Harvested3.6152.6172.6792.4692.9332.5853.097
Pounds per harvested acre
Yield6725706774637694757674727237
Million cwt
Beginning stocks36.548.541.136.431.848.546.5
Production243.1184.9199.9190222.2193.1224.1
Imports18.319.421.123.124.624.123.5
Total supply297.9252.8262.1249.5278.7265.8294.1
Food industrial & residual *3133.6107.5116120.7131.2107.7N/A
Seed3.33.33.13.63.23.9N/A
Total domestic use136.9110.8119124.4134.4111.6132
Exports112.6100.9106.693.395.7107.7110
Rough34.83334.12831.838.243
Milled *477.867.972.565.363.969.667
Total use249.5211.7225.7217.6230.2219.3242
Ending stocks48.541.136.431.848.546.552.1
Percent
Stocks-to-use ratio19.419.416.114.621.121.221.5
$/cwt
Average farm price *512.714.515.116.313.412.210.10 to 10.90
Percent
Average milling rate68.8669.93707170.57070

N/A = not available.
*1 August-July market year; rough equivalent.
*2 Projected.
*3 Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors.
*4 Rough-rice equivalent.
*5 Market-year weighted average.
Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board.
Updated March 9, 2017.

 

Table 2--U.S. rice supply and use, by class *1
Item2011/122012/132013/142014/152015/162016/17 *2
LONG GRAIN:
Million acres
Planted1.7941.9941.7812.2111.8792.442
Harvested1.7391.9791.7672.1961.8482.403
Pounds per harvested acre
Yield669172917464740772196927
Million cwt
Beginning stocks35.624.321.916.226.522.7
Production116.4144.3131.9162.7133.4166.5
Imports16.918.720.521.820.920.5
Total supply168.9187.3174.2200.6180.7209.7
Domestic use *37889.696.1106.281.5102
Exports66.775.861.96876.576
Total use144.7165.4158174.2158178
Ending stocks24.321.916.226.522.731.7
Percent
Stocks-to-use ratio16.813.210.315.214.417.8
$/cwt
Average farm price *413.414.515.411.911.29.50 to 10.1
MEDIUM/SHORT GRAIN:
Million acres
Planted0.8950.7060.7090.7430.7460.708
Harvested0.8780.70.7020.7370.7370.694
Pounds per harvested acre
Yield781279518270808081078311
Million cwt
Beginning stocks10.114.712.213.320.220.9
Production68.655.758.159.659.757.7
Imports2.42.32.62.93.33
Total supply *581.772.572.976.182.281.6
Domestic use *332.829.428.228.330.130
Exports34.230.831.427.731.234
Total use6760.359.65661.364
Ending stocks14.712.213.320.220.917.6
Percent
Stocks-to-use ratio21.920.322.43634.127.5
$/cwt
Average farm price
U.S. average *4 *617.117.419.218.315.312.10 to 12.9
California *6 *718.418.420.721.618.113.10 to 14.1
Other States *414.314.715.714.411.29.70 to 10.3
Ending stocks
Difference *12.12.32.31.92.9--

— = Not available.
*1 Stock totals by type omit brokens, which are included in total stocks for all types of rice in table 1.
*2 Projected.
*3 Includes residual.
*4 Market year begins August 1.
*5 Accounts for the difference in beginning and ending stocks of brokens. Thus, total supply of medium/short-grain may not equal the sum of beginning stocks, production, and imports.
*6 The medium/short-grain season-average farm price (SAFP) largely reflects rice that is marketed through
price pools in California. The pool price is not final until all the rice in the pool is marketed for the crop year. Therefore, SAFP forecasts based on the average of NASS monthly prices and the final price may differ.
*7 Market year begins October 1.
Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board.
Last updated March 9, 2017.

 

Table 3--U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings
2016/17
2015/16
2014/15
Month$/cwt1,000 cwt $/cwt1,000 cwt $/cwt1,000 cwt
August11.88220121107915.59798
September10.7984811.91236814.410055
October10.31510312.11633613.917576
November10.31475212.41343314.513906
December10.31717712.81475413.617627
January10.81916313.31781015.117091
February12.11485712.812456
March11.81356212.614560
April11.51388912.615918
May11.71375412.513145
June11.7121591214657
July12.11310311.616542
Average price to date10.61 *1
Season-average farm price10.10-10.9012.213.4
Average marketings140441392514444
Total volume marketed84263167104173331

*1 Weighted average.
Source: Monthly cash price and marketings, Agricultural Prices, USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.
Last updated March 9, 2017.

 

Table 4 -- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings by class
Long-grain
Medium- and short-grain
2016/17
2015/16
2016/17
2015/16
Month$/cwt1,000 cwt $/cwt1,000 cwt $/cwt1,000 cwt $/cwt1,000 cwt
August10.8613310.4875214.8208718.22327
September10743210.91021712.7241616.52151
October9.671147011.51279712.3363314.43539
November9.631155611.51033412.7319615.63099
December9.71332311.41045712.3385416.14297
January9.671290911.61169413.1625416.66116
February11.61198013.92877
March11.21081114.32751
April10.911059142830
May10.91075014.53004
June10.8905714.13102
July10.8889614.74207
Average to date *19.8212.88
Season-average farm price9.50-10.1011.212.10-
12.90 *2
15.3
Average marketings104711056735733358
Total volume marketed628231268042144040300

Market year August-July.
*1 Weighted average.
*2 The medium/short-grain season-average farm price (SAFP) largely reflects rice that is marketed through
price pools in California. The pool price is not final until all the rice in the pool is marketed for the crop year.
Therefore, SAFP forecasts based on the average of NASS monthly prices and the final price may differ.
Source: Monthly cash price and marketings, Agricultural Prices, USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.

 

Table 5--U.S. medium- and short-grain monthly rough-rice cash prices by region *1
California
Other States *2
Month2016/172015/16Month2016/172015/16
$/cwt
$/cwt
October13.519August1012.9
November13.618.6September9.5612.1
December13.319October10.412
January13.818.5November9.4211.7
February17.5December10.511.7
March18.4January10.311.4
April18.2February11.2
May18.1March10.6
June17.8April10.3
July17.3May10.2
August16.8June10.4
September16.3July9.93
Simple average to date13.5510.03
Market-year average13.10-14.1018.19.70-10.3011.2

—- Not reported.
*1 The California market year begins October 1; the Other States’ market year begins August 1.
*2 The remaining U.S. rice growing States are Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Texas.
Source: Quick Stats, USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service,
http://www.nass.usda.gov/Quick_Stats/
Last updated March 9, 2017.

 

Table 6--USDA-calculated world market rice prices (rough basis) *1
2016/17
2015/16
2014/15
MonthLong-grainMedium/
short-grain
Long-grainMedium/
short-grain
Long-grainMedium/
short-grain
$/cwt
August9.359.579.319.6811.812.12
September8.668.869.219.4611.7612.09
October8.438.629.429.6811.411.71
November8.398.589.539.7911.0411.33
December8.468.659.429.6810.8111.1
January8.558.749.189.4310.5610.83
February8.599.019.339.410.2710.41
March *28.699.119.229.31010.13
April9.49.4810.0210.15
May9.619.79.789.91
June9.889.979.629.74
July10.0310.139.79.82
Market-year average *18.648.899.469.6410.5610.78

*1 Simple average of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s weekly adjusted world market price.
*2 Preliminary.
Source: USDA, Farm Service Agency, Economic and Policy Analysis, Rice Reports,
http://www.fsa.usda.gov/programs-and-services/economic-and-policy-analysis/food-grains-analysis/rice-reports/index
Last updated March 9, 2017.

 

Table 7--U.S. rice imports *1
Country or region2009/10 market year2010/11 market year2011/12 market year2012/13 market year2013/14 market year2014/15 market year2015/16 market year2015/16 Aug-Jan *22016/17 Aug-Jan *2
1,000 tons
ASIA563.9529.8541.5624.8647.1703.1676.9326.8343
China3.83.13.62.73.24.842.11.9
India94.896.5110.5129.3138.8128.7166.681.970.5
Pakistan19.417.315.217.726.625.227.61410
Thailand401393.5387.6393.8428.6427.2437.3206.3239.8
Vietnam41.615.921.777.845.467.535.619.817.8
Other3.43.62.83.64.549.85.82.62.9
EUROPE & FORMER SOVIET UNION9.412.514.3121214.516.37.88.6
Italy6.27.55.27.58.299.545.4
Spain1.63.84.72.31.21.82.11.31
Russia000000000
United Kingdom0.1000.10.52.33.21.81.6
Other1.51.24.32.121.41.50.80.6
WESTERN HEMISPHERE30.442.764.535.94147.176.633.819.9
Argentina2.52.73.45.545.45.93.52.6
Brazil3.56.330.5514.416.551.718.79.4
Canada15.417.116.312.113.811.510.55.45.6
Mexico6.11.31.111.21.220.80.9
Uruguay2.915.413.212.35.36.23.22.70.3
Other0000.12.36.33.32.61.1
OTHER5.53.511.940.224.731.51.2
Egypt0.6000.600.10.40.20
United Arab Emirates4.430.50.410.90.60.40.6
Australia0000.437.423.110.70.3
Other0.40.50.40.41.80.700.20.3
TOTAL609.2588.6621.2674.6740.4789.4772.8369.8372.7

*1 Total August-July imports reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
*2 Through January only.
All data are reported on a product-weight basis. Categories may not sum to total due to rounding.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Department of Commerce.
Last updated March 9, 2017.

 

Table 8--U.S. commercial rice exports
Country or region2009/10 market year *12010/11 market year *12011/12 market year *12012/13 market year *12013/14 market year *12014/15 market year *12015/16 market year *12015/16 through Mar. 4, 2016 22016/17 through Mar. 2, 2017 2
1,000 tons
EUROPE & FSU98.3101.761.341.738.130.222.217.311.5
European Union88.690.352.237.730.626.818.615.38.4
Other Europe2.65.35.51.12.92.32.51.32.4
Former Soviet Union7.16.13.62.94.61.11.10.70.7
NORTHEAST ASIA571.3473.6592.3561.4474.6464.1608.3586.7564.3
Hong Kong1.10.62.66.26.20.31.10.57.8
Japan388.9355.3375.5347.6364.2307.7429.6418.4372.5
South Korea79.4100.6148.6145.172.1123.5132.6130.9156.4
Taiwan101.917.165.662.532.132.64536.927.6
OTHER ASIA, OCEANIA751.5641.8499.9463.6605.8468.7487.2307.7326.8
Australia26.215.8109.110.46.55.53.43.6
Iran004.9125.70061.461.40
Iraq135.111400132.5123.5155.462.50
Israel45.733.322.416.919.29.313.711.211
Jordan66.48393.271.288.771.982.258.780.6
Micronesia5.266.25.5221.10.71.1
New Zealand8.36.5333.82.12.41.62
Papua New Guinea37.99.400012.420.916.82
Saudi Arabia108.5118107.1122.890.9111.79756.1100.3
Singapore35.35.86.67.53.83.32.42.8
Syria15.913.621.9010000
Turkey267200.3189.875.4219.5106.922.419.599.8
Rest of Asia, Oceania 32.336.635.627.430.318.621.913.423.6
AFRICA117.4432.4179.6249.1110.812891.440.990.4
Algeria6.91.90000003
Ghana43.7100.294112.141.729.8004.1
Guinea-Conakry4.85114.43.64.13.11.72.6
Liberia8.438.526.715.56.30.51.81.27.8
Libya1.1152.924.889.547.893.286.237.856.4
Nigeria36.652.16.118.400000
Senegal049.80000000
South Africa0.51.10.50.90.80.10.20.10.1
Togo023.90000000
Other Africa15.4716.58.310.60.40.10.116.4
WESTERN HEMISPHE2142.92058.317852110.91811.221762150.61553.71534.6
Bahamas6.16.36.36.366.14.932.4
Brazil15.4200.10.10.10.1000
Canada166.8148.6147.7145.8138.6139.3151.1115.591.8
Colombia0.20.20.1150.1138.9285.3159.2109.258.7
Costa Rica124.869.758.175.363.191.379.458.559.6
Dominican Republic25.278.91.77.96.51512.231.2
El Salvador78.57776.583.870.176.489.666.942.9
Guatemala72.669.481.477.681.575.3113.167.372.8
Haiti226.5248.9233.4342323.9362.1403292.1295.6
Honduras119.3136.8140122.4142.4132151.8101.8129.6
Jamaica20.225.511.61.21.21.21.20.90.3
Leeward & Windward Islands8.39.410.22.91.60.50.70.50.5
Mexico775.1848.5803.7749.5690.7716.7618.7450.1446.2
Netherlands Antilles5.24.84.74.74.64.34.12.71.8
Nicaragua147142.240.639.910.32006.1
Panama10488.259.739.324.145.867.862.454
Venezuela241.8149.694.1262.598.9223.9287.7208.6240
Other Western Hemisphere5.96.27.95.87.37.23.321.1
UNKNOWN0000021.9031.166.8
TOTAL3681.43707.731183426.73040.732673359.62537.42594.3

*1 Total August-July marketing year commercial shipments.
*2 Total commercial shipments and outstanding sales.
Source: U.S. Export Sales, USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service.
Last updated March 9, 2017.

 

Table 9--U.S., Thailand, and Vietnam price quotes
United States
Thailand *5
Vietnam *7
Month or market- year *1Southern long-grain milled *2Southern long-grain rough *3California medium-grain milled *4100.00% Grade B5.00% Parboiled15.00% BrokensA.1 *6 Super5.00% Brokens
$ / metric ton
2010/11525300813518522481415471
2011/12560339703592587571521477
Aug. 2012576366749579586555509433
Sep. 2012590374750579591551512455
Oct. 2012593365756571586539519450
Nov. 2012595360750573590535523449
Dec. 2012595360737569566535521414
Jan. 2013607360698575573540530405
Feb. 2013621370650575574542534400
Mar. 2013632371650573564536533399
Apr. 2013644375650571553535530383
May 2013661377663558552514511376
Jun. 2013639389690536546489492369
Jul. 2013625394690519538459462389
2012/13615372703565568528515410
Aug. 2013609386690493507430428391
Sep. 2013608385660461462418416363
Oct. 2013601380631445450399391395
Nov. 2013591380625433449395385403
Dec. 2013595380625428449394370427
Jan. 2014590380625418442360310404
Feb. 2014579380NQ423447370313398
Mar. 20145843801100416431377314388
Apr. 20145843801075401409373306385
May 20145843801075399403368303403
Jun. 20145773801075405416372321406
Jul. 20145573651039421429NQ333431
2013/14588380838428441386349399
Aug. 20145533291030447441NQ339454
Sep. 20145403251010449437NQ336450
Oct. 2014530320940446432NQ330440
Nov. 2014530308940434419NQ332420
Dec. 2014520303932424411403326392
Jan. 2015507284913423410403326374
Feb. 2015481263888421410400326355
Mar. 2015485260870413400387327367
Apr. 2015485250863408392377327358
May 2015474229850393382371323355
Jun. 2015461222850383371372322353
Jul. 2015474240850396390376324350
2014/15503278911420408385328389
Aug. 2015511278839382374358324340
Sep. 2015565311835366356341318329
Oct. 2015576313835373362355NQ364
Nov. 2015549295825371358350NQ376
Dec. 2015517280802365354342NQ377
Jan. 2016498283790371360350NQ359
Feb. 2016509275790381372362NQ354
Mar. 2016508263790379371362NQ381
Apr. 2016509263719385376371NQ374
May 2016510281685410410388NQ376
Jun. 2016510290650418422406NQ374
Jul. 2016498279650431455410NQ366
2015/16522284768386381366321364
Aug. 2016479266622409412387NQ350
Sep. 2016474250618388384366NQ334
Oct. 2016470256621373367351NQ345
Nov. 2016463249618367359342NQ346
Dec. 2016455245597380368355NQ337
Jan. 2017453244575382373355NQ340
Feb. 2017 *8460245575376369349NQ353
Mar. 2017 *9460245575380371350NQ360
2016/17 *9464250600382375357NQ346

NQ = No quotes. Bold denotes a back-year or back-month revision.
*1 Simple average of weekly quotes.
Market year average prices are simple average of monthly prices.
*2 Number 2, 4-percent brokens, sacked, free on board vessel.. Prior to August 2015, free alongside vessel, U.S. Gulf Port.
Since August 2015, free on board vessel, U.S. Gulf port.
To convert to a free on board vessel price add $25 per ton.
*3 Bulk, free on board vessel, New Orleans, LA.
*4 New price series. Number 1, maximum 4-percent brokens, sacked, 25 kilogram, containerized, free on board, California mill.
*5 Nominal price quotes, long-grain, sacked, free on board vessel, Bangkok, Thailand.
*6 100-percent brokens, new price series.
*7 Long-grain, double-water-polished, bagged,
free on board vessel, Ho Chi Minh City.
*8 Revised. Please note previous months’ revisions in bold.
*9 Preliminary.

Sources: U.S. and Vietnam prices, Creed Rice Market Report; Thailand prices, Weekly Rice Price Update, U.S.
Agricultural Office, Bangkok, Thailand (http://www.fas.usda.gov).
Updated March 9, 2017.

 

Table 10--Global rice producers: annual production, monthly revisions, and annual changes *1
2014/15
2015/16 *2
2016/17 *2
February 2017March 2017Monthly revisionsAnnual changesFebruary 2017March 2017Monthly revisionsAnnual changes
Country
1,000 metric tons
Afghanistan5013973970-10440340306
Argentina10149109100-104935935025
Australia4971801800-317662627-35447
Bangladesh345003450034500003458134581081
Brazil8465721072100-125578208068248858
Burma1260012200122000-40012500125000300
Cambodia47004705470505470047000-5
China144560145770145770012101448501448500-920
Colombia1220140014000180163016300230
Cote d'Ivoire1340183618360496195019500114
Cuba375395395020433433038
Dominican Republic532536536044774770-59
Ecuador7307507500206606600-90
Egypt4530400040000-530455445540554
European Union1954205020500962050205000
Ghana3623853850233663660-19
Guinea13011351135105013751375024
Guyana6356696690345605600-109
India10548210432010440888-107410650010650002092
Indonesia355603620036200064036600366000400
Iran17161782178206618481848066
Iraq2671101100-1571731730
Japan7849767076700-179779077900120
Korea, North1700130013000-400160016000300
Korea, South424143274327086419741970-130
Laos18751925192505019501950025
Liberia16818618601818918903
Madagascar2546238223820-16424422442060
Malaysia1800180018000018201820020
Mali1409151515150106165016500135
Mexico1791561560-23190190034
Mozambique2492322320-1723423402
Nepal310031003100003100310000
Nigeria2835270927090-126270027000-9
Pakistan6900680068000-100664066400-160
Paraguay5234794790-4448248203
Peru199921562156015721802180024
Philippines1191511000110000-91511500115000500
Russia6827227220407007000-22
Sierra Leone7288018010736936930-108
Sri Lanka2735329432940559235023500-944
Taiwan113611441144081144114400
Tanzania17301750175002018001800050
Thailand1875015800158000-2950186001860002800
Turkey46050050004050050000
Uganda1541501500-415015000
United States7106613361330-973711771170984
Uruguay97788291331-649109100-3
Venezuela3603403400-203053050-35
Vietnam2816627458274580-70827800278000342
Subtotal475113468367468486119-66274763604765732138087
Others344036773677023737743774097
World total478553472044472163119-63904801344803472138184

*1 Market year production on a milled basis.
*2 Projected.
Source: Production, Supply, & Distribution Online Data Base, USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx
Updated March 9, 2017.

 

Table 11--Global rice exporters; calendar year exports, monthly revisions, and annual changes
2015
2016 *1
2017 *1
February 2017March 2017Monthly revisionsAnnual changesFebruary 2017March 2017Monthly revisionsAnnual changes
Country
1,000 metric tons (milled basis)
Argentina3105275270217550550023
Australia3231501500-1732502500100
Brazil8956416410-2546507005059
Burma173511711303132-432150015000197
Cambodia11509009000-250100010000100
China26227536893106275500225132
Cote d'Ivoire207575055757500
Egypt2502002000-503003000100
European Union251270270019280280010
Guinea5050803030808000
Guyana4864604600-26500500040
India110461020010040-160-10061030010000-300-40
Japan657575010808005
Kazakhstan4241410-1505009
Pakistan4000430043000300420042000-100
Paraguay371581557-241864704700-87
Peru3050500206060010
Russia1631901988351801800-18
Senegal10101000101000
South Africa12090145552590900-55
Surinam35404005454505
Tanzania30303000303000
Thailand97799867986708810000100000133
Turkey28505002225250-25
Uganda40404000404000
United States335535413541018635503500-50-41
Uruguay718983996132788508500-146
Venezuela1801001000-8080800-20
Vietnam6606510051000-150658005600-200500
Subtotal423504000740154147-21964132041045-275891
Other2772582580-20185184-1-74
World total426274026540412147-22154150541229-276817
U.S. Share7.90%8.80%8.80%----8.60%8.50%0--

Note: All trade data are reported on a calendar year basis.
*1 Projected.
Source: Production, Supply, & Distribution Online Data Base, USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx
Last updated March 9, 2017.

 

Table 12--Global rice importers; calendar year imports, monthly revisions, and annual changes
2015
2016 *1
2017 *1
February 2017March 2017Monthly revisionsAnnual changesFebruary 2017March 2017Monthly revisionsAnnual changes
Country
1,000 tons (milled basis)
Afghanistan25030030005030030000
Australia1511701700191551550-15
Bangladesh59835350-5635050015
Brazil3637717710408700600-100-171
Cameroon500530500-300530520-1020
Canada3623503566-636536509
China515045004600100-550500050000400
Colombia3503003000-501701700-130
Costa Rica107170159-11521401400-19
Cote d'Ivoire115013001300015013501350050
Cuba5755445440-315105100-34
Egypt361001161680300150-15034
European Union178618001814142818501850036
Ghana58065065007065065000
Guinea35045050050150500600100100
Haiti447470431-39-16490490059
Honduras1481952049561451450-59
Hong Kong3323303300-2345345015
Indonesia135011001000-100-3501000800-200-200
Iran1300110011000-200105010500-50
Iraq100990092929-8010001000071
Japan6886856850-368568500
Jordan195205200-55210210010
Korea, North225050028505000
Korea, South3723133130-59410410097
Liberia280270200-70-80310250-6050
Libya250250200-50-50250250050
Madagascar21023023002023023000
Malaysia10519509500-10195095000
Mexico7197007313112750750019
Mozambique57557557500600600025
Nicaragua70919102175750-16
Niger30030030000310310010
Nigeria2100200020000-100190019000-100
Philippines20008008000-1200140014000600
Russia22820021111-172002000-11
Saudi Arabia160015001400-100-200155015500150
Senegal9909859850-599099005
Sierra Leone2202002000-20280280080
Singapore28830031919313003000-19
South Africa9121000954-46429259250-29
Sri Lanka28530300-2551501500120
Syria2001501500-501401400-10
Taiwan1221261260412612600
Thailand300300300002502500-50
Turkey256275275019300300025
United Arab Emirates580670670090750750080
United States7587687680107507500-18
Venezuela5004004000-10040040000
Vietnam4003003000-10030030000
Yemen5204004000-120420420020
Subtotal338853108830922-166-29633256132141-4201219
Other countries *287429177949031374889449088144-402
World total426274026540412147-22154150541229-276817

Note: All trade data are reported on a calendar-year basis.
— = Not available.
*1 Projected.
*2 Includes unaccounted imports (imports not assigned a particular market).
Source: Production, Supply, & Distribution Online Data Base, USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service, http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx
Last updated March 9, 2017.

 

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